Weekly rates

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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.37% this morning, inching upward again as a quick solution to the middle east conflict appears elusive. Returning to WTI and oil as the primary driver of uncertainty, we find prices at $100/bbl yet again. UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC today, potentially leading to a weaker OPEC, but more competitive market if the conflict was resolved. For now, real supply constraints are starting to matter. All of this is inflationary of course. Comparing UST10 to TIPS, we find bond market implied inflation at 2.42%, the highest rate this year.CME Fedwatch says <20% chance of rate cut by the end of 2026, down from 30% a week ago at this time.
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