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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.30%, this morning, up another 8bps from last week amid conflicting signals on the economic front. We had a lot of data last week with the releases of CPI, PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. First, CPI reported in with a slightly less than expected reading on both the Year over Year (2.8%) and Excluding Food and Energy (3.1%) measures. PPI followed at 3.2% and 3.4% for Final Demand and Excluding Food and Energy, so Inflation seems to have subdued, at least for the moment. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 220k (225k survey), so better than expected there also. Looking forward, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in weaker than expected with a 1yr expected inflation of 4.9% (4.3% survey) and a 5yr expected at 3.9% (3.4% survey). The real impact of current trade positions, job cuts, and other unknowns hasn’t really been felt yet, but the market seems to think it is coming. Markets working to interpret what a “pause” in the economy means as Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests this is likely as we transition away from government spending in a bid to bring back manufacturing. The Fed Meets this week, but expect them to remain on hold.
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