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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.19% this morning, up 7bp from last week at this time.Markets continue to focus on oil prices and the impact on inflation and the global economy. For perspective, prices are up some 42% since the war began. How long prices will remain elevated is unclear, but the futures market offers an opinion. Prices expected to remain at least 20% above prewar levels until September / October timeframe with return to sub $70 not until late 2027. Those dynamics will have an appreciable impact on already accelerating inflation, and could push interest rates higher. Core PCE price index released last week showed 3.1% inflation year-over-year. Markets say 50/50 chance of any rate cut but not until September, look for that to be pushed out further if the oil futures markets are correct.
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