Weekly rates

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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.19% this morning, just 2bp higher than last week despite this morning’s announcement of a faster than expected GDP print at 4.3%. GDP increased to 4.3% from 3.8% last quarter, with consumer spending also up by 1% to 3.5% this quarter from 2.5% (Bloomberg). The economy appears to be doing well with both consumer spending and forward sentiment (U-Mich Survey 52.9) improving. Consider this strength in light of a 4.6% unemployment rate, the highest level in 4 years, inflation at 2.7%, still above the Fed’s target, and a lot of talk about affordability. Seems to support the case that significantly lower rates could do more harm than good, at least at this point. Futures market seems to agree putting chances of a rate cut in January at only 13%. Major themes remain a weakening jobs market, higher inflation, and other risk factors despite record valuations on the equities side.
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