Weekly rates

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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.30% this morning, down 8bp from last week, but still higher by around 12bps from the start of 2026.Yields on the UST10 hit a YTD high at 4.43% last week with markets concerned about oil’s impact on the economy. Taken together with tariff pressures, inflation and higher interest rates was the thinking. That changed yesterday with the bond market trimming 13bps from the yield and now viewing a slowdown in the economy possibly having a larger impact than inflation. Comments from Chairman Powell also seemed to calm the markets a bit by mentioning that energy shocks to the economy tend to come and go over time.Futures market followed by putting a 30% chance of a rate cut by the Q4 2026 back on the table after calling for a rate increase just a week earlier.
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