Weekly rates

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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.28% this morning, giving back the 5-6bps drop from last week's writing, and still up from 2026’s opening at 4.17%.   What a difference a week makes in the world of volatility. Last week we wrote about the huge run-up in gold versus a lesser decline in the dollar. The two have a very strong inverse relationship as gold is viewed as a hedge. We mentioned the distortion of late, with possible factors including a rotation out of dollar denominated assets, expectations around forward inflation, volatility, and the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven status versus other options. Almost concurrent with the announcement last week of Kevin Warsh as nominee for Fed Chair, gold fell by 14% in one day (that is almost $500/oz), while the dollar rose by 0.9%. The volatility in metals highlights the question of reserve status and the amount of speculation imbedded in current valuations. While the volatility cannot be ignored, focus on fundamentals.
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